Decay of Long-established Democracies

Abstract

Can transgressions by the highest officials against democratic norms happen even if, or even because, such norms have long been well-observed? We analyze a simple model of deterrence of potential transgressions to explore a defining paradox within any institution that has long deterred such transgressions: now that a credible deterrence would be deployed only on the off-equilibrium path, how could the deterrence remain credible if the institution has not been tested by transgressive attempts for a long time? We characterize the conditions under which transgressions against democratic norms are inevitable or not. Our results provide implications for the theories of democratic resilience and institutional decay, and of deterrence against “apex crimes.''