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A Two-Wave Death History: Fentanyl Overdoses in the US, Bullets in Mexico
Chicago, USA 27 June 2024 – 29 June 2024
Gustavo Torrens (Indiana University / Department of Economics); Ivan Lopez Cruz (Sabanci University)
A4 — Institutions: Past, Present, and Criminal
Chair: Henry Thompson
Room 0007
Economics / Governance between organizations
Abstract
We establish a link between the fentanyl epidemic in the US starting in 2013 and a second wave of drug-related violence in Mexico. We argue that the demand for fentanyl in the US pushed some drug trafficking organizations to reoptimize their trafficking routes, leading to new clashes and violence, often in locations unaffected by the first wave of violence caused by the 2007 Mexican War on Drugs. Exploiting the differential impact that the Mexican War on Drugs and the demand for fentanyl had on different municipalities, we estimate that fentanyl caused between 15 and 20 extra homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.