Legacies of Authoritarian Resistance and Present-day Democratic Resilience in Poland

Abstract

Until recently, an empirical regularity, backed by theoretical arguments, has been that backsliders who stay in office for at least two electoral cycles, are never voted out until eventually democracy breaks down. A recent case of backsliding reversal in Poland has defied this regularity. What explains the behavior of voters who switch away from supporting the incumbent? While authoritarian incumbents in democratic backsliding regimes often enjoy widespread public approval, this popular support as well as changes in this support are far from uniform. We exploit this variation to test with subnational data a theory of inter-generational transmission of pro-democratic resistance values. We theorize that people who grew up where resistance to a prior authoritarian regime was commonplace may find it easier to resist the undermining of liberal democracy and the rule of law. We hypothesize that democratic values rooted in past anti-authoritarian resistance may be passed on through family ties and a strong and enduring democratic local civic culture. Our findings demonstrate how historical opposition to autocratic rule may facilitate resistance to democratic backsliding today and highlight the potential democratic legacies of past authoritarian experiences.