War’s Effects on Legislative Voting Behavior: Evidence from the US Civil War

Abstract

We examine voting in the Confederate Congress during the US Civil War (1860-1865) leveraging time-series data on Union occupation of Confederate House districts from the outbreak of the war to its conclusion. We apply several designs to recover causal estimates. First, we conduct a difference-in-difference analysis comparing changes in legislative voting behavior among members whose districts become occupied to those whose districts were never- or always-occupied. Second, we conduct a spatial discontinuity analysis comparing changes in legislative voting behavior among neighboring districts where one became occupied and the other did not. Third, we conduct an instrumental variables analysis where we instrument for Union occupation using geographical features of the US South conducive to or hostile to nineteenth century troop movement including terrain ruggedness and existing rail lines. Finally, we conduct a triple difference analysis comparing changes in legislative voting behavior among Confederate House members whose districts become occupied to those whose districts were never- or always-occupied, and then comparing that change to changes in legislative voting behavior among members of the US Congress.