Natural disasters support authoritarian populism: Evidence from the Brazilian shrimp vote
Francisco Cavalcanti (Federal University of Pernambuco); Diogo Baerlocher (University of South Florida); Renata Caldas (University of South Florida); Rodrigo Schneider (Skidmore College)
Abstract
This research paper investigates the relationship between natural disasters and protests against autocratic regimes using data from the 1979-1983 Drought in the Brazilian semi-arid region. The study utilizes data from meteorological stations to compute deviations from historical means of water deficit and uses it as the primary explanatory variable. The results suggest a negative causal effect of adverse weather conditions on protests against the military regime. Additionally, the study finds that disaster relief provided by the government, income inequality, and social vulnerability measures do not seem to drive this effect. However, the effect is heterogeneous to the degree of economic vulnerability, as measured by the importance of cotton for local production, suggesting that this may be the relevant mechanism at play. The study also puts forth a probabilistic voting model that reconciles mixed findings in the literature and guides the empirical exercise.