Conflict and Nation-Building: The Case of the 2014 Russia-Ukraine War

Abstract

How does conflict shape national identity? While wars may consolidate a nation, common past and ethnolinguistic ties with the aggressor may instead cause greater polarization. We study these forces in the context of the 2014 Russia-Ukraine armed conflict. Using a series of high-frequency nationally representative surveys from 2008 through 2020, we analyze the conflict's impact on ethnic self-identification and language use among residents of non-occupied Ukrainian territories. The findings reveal a large increase in the share of individuals identifying as solely Ukrainian, rather than solely Russian or of mixed identity. Similarly, we observe a decline in the use of the Russian language during surveys. Contrary to a polarization hypothesis, the shift toward Ukrainian identity was more pronounced in districts with a greater share of ethnic Russians. These findings remain similar after accounting for respondent demographics and refugee flows. These patterns are further supported by social media data on self-reported language proficiency on VK and the language of posts on Twitter, with the latter allowing for individual-level analysis. Overall, these results suggest that conflict serves as a catalyst for nation-building processes, even in contexts with a significant initial risk of conflict-induced polarization.