Development Mismatch: Evidence from Agricultural Projects in Pastoral Africa

Abstract

We study the consequences of a clash between contemporary development initiatives and traditional economic practices in Africa. Crop agriculture has expanded considerably across the continent in recent years. Much of this expansion has occurred in traditionally pastoral areas, where land is typically managed according to customary arrangements. This is believed to be a major cause of conflict between pastoral and agricultural ethnic groups. We test this hypothesis using geocoded data on agricultural development projects across Africa from 1995-2014. We find that implementing agricultural projects in traditionally pastoral areas leads to a two-fold increase in the risk of conflict. We find no equivalent effect for agricultural projects implemented in traditionally agricultural areas, nor for non-agricultural projects implemented in either location. We also find that this mechanism contributes to the spread of extremist-religious conflict in the form of jihadist attacks. Finally, our estimated effects depend on the distribution of political power: when pastoral groups have more power, projects are less likely to incite violence. This is likely due to the effect of political power on project types and locations. Our results indicate that "development mismatch"--i.e., imposing projects that are misaligned with local populations--can be costly.