Beyond the Canopy: How Satellite Data Resolution Influences Policy Evaluation and Deforestation Behavior

Abstract

Satellite data is essential for monitoring deforestation and informing environmental policy, but the resolution of these data can significantly influence both policy implementation and evaluation. This study examines the impact of Brazil’s 2008 Blacklisting policy in the Amazon, using multiple satellite datasets. We find that the dataset traditionally used for both monitoring and evaluation systematically overestimates the policy’s effectiveness due to its inability to detect small deforestation patches. We argue that its dual role as both the monitoring tool for enforcement and the source of data for policy assessment, together with its coarse resolution, leads to additional issues caused by strategic adaptation. By analyzing over 180 billion Landsat pixels, we identify significant discrepancies in deforestation patterns captured by varying resolutions of satellite data. Our analysis reveals that deforesting agents strategically adapt their behavior in response to stricter monitoring, creating smaller patches that evade detection by coarser datasets. These findings highlight the importance of high-resolution data for evaluating the true effects of deforestation policies and addressing strategic adaptations that challenge enforcement efforts.