Marriage Market and Assortative Matching in Colonial Tasmania

Abstract

Assortative matching in marriage markets has profound implications for income redistribution, fertility, inequality, and human capital accumulation. While existing literature emphasizes the evolving role of women’s economic prospects in shaping marriage outcomes, the colonial history of Australia presents a unique context for studying these dynamics. During the convict settlement era, Tasmania experienced a heavily male-biased sex ratio, driven by the predominantly male convict population. This imbalance created a marriage market where women, despite their minority status, held significant power in partner selection. Using marriage certificates from 1804 to 1930 and merging these records with census data (1842–1871), this paper examines the effects of biased sex ratios on assortative matching. Exploiting geographical variation in convict sex ratios as an instrument, we find that historically higher male-to-female ratios increased women’s likelihood of “upmarrying” in terms of literacy, favorable age differences, and marital status. These patterns persisted for at least a century and remained robust after controlling for geographical and individual characteristics. Our findings highlight how historical gender imbalances shaped marriage markets and broader socio-economic trends, offering new insights into the short-term effects of demographic imbalances on family formation in one of Australia’s most historically significant regions.