War, Politics, and the Rise of Nations: How Superpowers Choose Allies

Abstract

This paper offers a framework for understanding the rise of nations via war and alliance politics. The economic rationale of alliance decisions are summarized by two pairs of inequalities comparing the relative levels of wealth and military strengths of nations. These inequalities suggest that a superpower may fight alone or ally with strong but poor nations to rob wealthy but weak nations. Other nations ally with or against the superpower depending on its wealth and strength. At a tipping point, a marginal change in economic conditions shocks alliance relationships. The theory has profound empirical and policy implications.