Coercive Policies and the Persistence of Violence: Evidence from Male Sterilizations in India

Abstract

Do coercive state-led programs have persistent effects on interpersonal violence? This paper investigates the long-run impact of a government-mandated sterilization campaign that predominantly targeted men during India's Emergency (1975--77). Launched in April 1976, the program was implemented with substantial variation in coercion intensity across districts over a period of ten months. Using newly digitized historical records, administrative crime data, and several nationally representative household surveys, we study whether the program generated unintended consequences for violence. Using a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits geographic variation in coercion intensity, we find that greater exposure to the program led to a persistent increase in violent crime. The increase is driven by murders and violence against women: murders rise by 17% and rapes by 33% in high-coercion districts. In contrast, we find little evidence of comparable increases in property crimes or other non-violent offenses. Event-study estimates indicate that these effects persist for decades. The results remain robust when controlling for a broad range of potential confounders. We investigate several mechanisms through which coercive sterilization may generate persistent increases in violence. First, we examine whether the program reduced fertility and demographic outcomes, which could in turn influence long-run patterns of violence. Using representative household survey data, we document a backlash against the program's intended goal: fertility increased slightly, but the magnitude of this effect is small and unlikely to explain the observed rise in violence. Second, we explore the program's long-run consequences for gender norms and psychological well-being. Districts more heavily exposed to coercive sterilization exhibit higher acceptance of intimate partner violence, lower female bargaining power and mobility, lower female sterilization rates, and lower male well-being decades after the Emergency. These findings are consistent with persistent social and psychological effects of coercive sterilization, including trauma, threatened masculinity and a change in gender norms, which may contribute to the long-run increase in interpersonal violence documented in the paper.