Forced Displacement of Scholars and Academic Output During the Scientific Revolution

Abstract

We examine how the mobility of scholars across Europe’s fragmented political landscape contributed to knowledge accumulation during the Scientific Revolution (1000-1800). Using data on 60,000 European scholars, we find that mobility significantly increased scientific output. We instrument for mobility using exogenous local shocks – plague outbreaks, nearby battles, and ruler changes – that forced scholars to relocate. Our estimates show that scholars forced to move experienced a 37% productivity increase. The mechanism operates through knowledge spillovers: moving scholars encountered diverse intellectual influences across universities, enhancing their output. To assess the aggregate effects of the shock-induced moves, we build a quantitative model that incorporates intergenerational learning externalities. Counterfactual simulations indicate that without forced displacement, the Scientific Revolution would have been delayed by approximately three centuries. Our findings lend empirical support to Joel Mokyr’s argument that political fragmentation and the resulting shocks to scholars' locations accelerated European scientific progress by enhancing knowledge diffusion.