Institutional Confidence and Democratic Backsliding

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic model of democratic backsliding in which unconstitutional, power grabs may be stopped by two distinct forces: horizontal restrainers (e.g., courts, electoral commissions, or oversight bodies) and vertical restrainers (the public opinion, or a part of it, namely the current minority). The core argument is that these two restrainers can function as substitutes: when citizens believe institutions will reliably block abuses, they rationally invest less in political resistance. Over time, this substitution can create a vulnerability, making democracies more likely to succumb to authoritarian moves precisely after long periods of apparent constitutional stability.