Voter Resentment and the Strategic Dynamics of Enfranchisement

Abstract

Why do parties resist enfranchising new voter groups? Parties that obstruct enfranchisement often accumulate negative sentiment among the affected group, and this resentment manifests as an electoral penalty for the obstructing party if enfranchisement eventually occurs. We formalize the concept of voter resentment, and we develop a dynamic formal model to analyze when and why parties resist enfranchising new voter groups. We show that resisting enfranchisement can offer short-term protection against electoral loss, but it risks the party's long-run electoral viability. Three key findings inform how parties navigate this dilemma. (1) Increased voter sensitivity to past disenfranchisement generally incentivizes incumbent parties to enfranchise sooner. However, (2) this effect is moderated by the party's existing partisan advantage. Parties with a strong initial partisan base may become less likely to enfranchise as voter sensitivity to past obstruction rises, opting to rely on their core supporters rather than appeal to a resentful new group. (3) The precision of information regarding the new group's latent support also interacts with partisan strength; higher precision can encourage enfranchisement for electorally strong parties but deter it for weaker ones. The results offer implications for voting rights activists, whose pro-democracy movements may increase voters' sensitivity to disenfranchisement.